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NFL Bargain Bets: Week 1
September 3rd 2008
by Old Man Winner

Kansas City Chiefs (+16) at New England Patriots        

C'mon - 16.5 points on opening weekend is waaaaaaay too much respect to give the Pats. However, in the fans typical "last year" mentality, they continue to push the spread North. Look, I know KC sucks, but they do have some things going for them that a lot of other squads don't. LJ is healthy again and had a whole preseason of training. Croyle, albeit not even a mid-tier QB, has some NFL starts under his belt and a whole preseason of timing with his receivers (unlike Brady).

The KC defense can't be any worse than they were last season. For NE, teams started figuring them out at the tale end of last year. Counting the playoffs, NE failed to cover the spread their last 6 games and 8 of their last 9. They lost their best defender in Asante Samuel and they are getting old fast. Their offense plays an exceedingly tough schedule against the pass and a much easier schedule against the run. Knowing Bill Belichick, he has seen that and spent the entire offseason working on improving the run game. As usual, he will surprise the rest of the league. The combination of their defensive drop off and likely change in offensive philosophy will likely reduce their average margin of victory precipitously this year. I don't like the Chiefs, but I will take them with this many points on opening weekend. Oh, did I forget to mention that Tom Brady hasn't thrown a game pass this pre-season?



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