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NFL Bargain Bets: Week 1
September 3rd 2008 by Old Man Winner
Kansas City Chiefs (+16) at New England Patriots
C'mon - 16.5 points on opening weekend is waaaaaaay too much respect to give the
Pats. However, in the fans typical "last year" mentality, they continue to push
the spread North. Look, I know KC sucks, but they do have some things going for
them that a lot of other squads don't. LJ is healthy again and had a whole
preseason of training. Croyle, albeit not even a mid-tier QB, has some NFL
starts under his belt and a whole preseason of timing with his receivers (unlike
Brady).
The KC defense can't be any worse than they were last season. For NE, teams
started figuring them out at the tale end of last year. Counting the playoffs,
NE failed to cover the spread their last 6 games and 8 of their last 9. They
lost their best defender in Asante Samuel and they are getting old fast. Their
offense plays an exceedingly tough schedule against the pass and a much easier
schedule against the run. Knowing Bill Belichick, he has seen that and spent the
entire offseason working on improving the run game. As usual, he will surprise
the rest of the league. The combination of their defensive drop off and likely
change in offensive philosophy will likely reduce their average margin of
victory precipitously this year. I don't like the Chiefs, but I will take them
with this many points on opening weekend. Oh, did I forget to mention that Tom
Brady hasn't thrown a game pass this pre-season?
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