Free Thursday Night Pick: Week 12
November 19th 2008
by Special K

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals

Check out this trend, teams favored by more than 10 points have only covered once so far this season.  Who is that team you ask?  The NY Giants vs 49ers,  thanks to a late safety.  The underdogs have a remarkable record of 13-1 when getting more than 10 points so far in 2008.  So why wouldn't you just take the Bengals then?

Well, for one, the Steelers have owned the Bengals in their last three meetings winning by double digits.  The Steelers defense is the best in the league in both rushing and passing yards allowed.  Can you honestly see the Bengals scoring more than 10-13 points in this ball game against this Steelers D?  This just means the Steelers need to put up around 21 to 24 points.  The Steelers offense is long overdue in converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns and the touchdown bug will get contagious on Thursday night.  The Bengals defense is much improved this year but they are still ranked one of the lowest when it comes to sacks.  Big Ben should have ample time to make some big plays down field.  Besides, if the offense fails to get the scoring done, the defense will find a way to put up points.  I could easily see the Steelers D racking up double digit sacks in this one as the Bengals offensive line is completely banged up.   

It's not a good sign when your only legitimate reasons for picking the Bengals could possibly be:  this 10+ point trend, hope for bad weather so that field conditions are very poor, or maybe the officials will call 13 penalties against the Steelers again and take back some touchdowns.

Take the Steelers on prime time running away with this one.