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Free Thursday Night Pick: Week 15
December 10th 2008
by Special K

New Orleans Saints (+3) at Chicago Bears 

I'm 3-1 in predicting the Thursday Night games so far having won the last 3 in a row!  However, I meet my nemesis this week, the New Orleans Saints.  I'm 3-10 in picking Saints games this season (yes I had the Falcons last week). As a matter of fact, I am 14-37 in games involving the NFC South.  If I could subtract out the NFC South's games from my overall record, I'd be 92-61 - that's a 60% winning percentage.

We are now into week 15 and I obviously haven't learned anything about the Saints.  However, I do think that they are the better team coming into this Thursday Night game and would be favored by 3 or 4 points if the game were not being played in Chicago in freezing conditions.  The Saints are a dreadful 1-5 on the road this season (lone win coming at KC) and Drew Brees is 2-6 when the temperature is near freezing.  So why would I even pick the Saints then?

This game matches up two Purdue QB's with the edge definitely going to Drew Brees.  The Bears 28th ranked pass defense is going to have a difficult time keeping Brees and the Saints contained.  I also like how the Saints have been utilizing Pierre Thomas in the red zone and on short yardage.  He has become a very effective running back for the Saints.  Simply put, the Bears are going to need to generate turnovers to slow this Saints offense down.  Another thing to keep in mind is that the Bears have not beaten a team with a winning record since the Vikings in Week 7.

Take the Saints plus the points

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