NFL Bargain Bets for Week 14
December 9th 2009 - Old Man Winner
HO HO HO - Looks like Santa is coming early this year!
How can the Packers only be favored by 3 points in this game? They are playing
the best football in the league right now and the Bears, well . . . the Bears
The Packers have covered against the Bears in each of Aaron Rodgers three games
leading up to this one. They have outscored their opponents by an average score
of 27-14 over their last four games. The offensive line is much healthier than
it was in the first half of the year and its giving Rodgers time. When he has
time he is as good as any QB in the league - bar none! Green Bay has the deepest
collection of receivers in the league - behind the names (Jennings and Driver)
they like to use Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Brandon Jackson out of the
backfield. They have also added a quality tight end to their receiving mix in
Jermichael Finley, who had two TD's last week and is just starting to be used to
his fullest potential. The only way the Packers have been stopped this year is
with a strong pass rush. The Bears are only average rushing the passer - and
average in this game simply won't be enough. And, when GB decides to mix in a
run they shouldn't have too much trouble against the 25th ranked rush defense in
As for Chicago, you might be looking at their record and say, "hey, they've got
five wins - what gives?" Yes, they have 5 wins. They have beaten Stl., Cle, Det,
Sea, and Pitt. Those teams have a combined record of 15-45. That is nothing to
write home about. On offense the Bears rank 2nd to last in rushing - decimal
points ahead of Indy at only 88 yds/game. Then, when they pass Cutler leads the
league in interceptions. This is a completely inept team that no longer knows
who they are and are clearly without a leader that teammates can rally around
behind center. Green Bay's defense has been coming on strong and should gobble
up Forte and sack Cutler numerous times. I also expect one INT to be brought
back to the house.
The spread on this should be closer to GB -9 or 10.
GB 33 Chi 17 Buy a big ticket on this one and give yourself an early present!
Other games I love: Az -3, NYJ -3.5, SD +3