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September 18th 2009 - Old Man Winner             

New England Patriots (-3.5) at New York Jets

Almost! I almost got caught up in this week's NE vs. NYJ hype. Have you heard that the New York Jets are considering this game their Super Bowl? Have you heard that new Jets head coach, Rex Ryan, has voicemailed all season ticket holders asking for their 'extra' support this week against the Pats? Have you heard the deafening silence coming from the Patriots - who refuse to bite? Did you also hear that Rex Ryan admitted in his message that the Pats had both a superior quarterback and a superior coach? I think he is right, and those two will assure the Pats of a victory and a spread cover this week.

This one has the classic feel of a fired up underdog with loads of emotion going up against a more talented, experienced, and prepared favorite. Belichick and Brady will use the Jets emotion against them early in the game. I expect to see a fair amount of traps, draws, and screens to take advantage of the Jets linemen who will be like eager audience participants who follow the magician's eyes toward his one hand, while the other does the dirty work. Yes, Brady should be pulling quarters out of earholes for most of the game.

Besides, with all the hype over Mark Sanchez and his whole ONE game of NFL experience, it's more likely that Belichick is licking his chops on how to show Sanchez the speed of a real NFL defense, not the one he saw in Houston last week. Scheme alone should throw him off balance even if the Pats D is just a skeleton of last year's squad.

It took the Pats three quarters to warm up last week, and the Bills aren't the Jets, but once that offense got in sync it was like retro 2007. I think this game will also start slow and be close into the second half until experience kicks in and superior smarts takes over and dominates.

This game opened with a spread over 6 and is now down under 4. Don't fall for the hype, give the points.

Love the under (46) in this game as well.

Other teams I like to cover this week: Balt, Car, NO, and Pit

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