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2009 Best Bets - Season Over/Under
August 30th 2009 - Old Man Winner             

This year's Best Bet:

Green Bay over 8.5 wins
GB plays one of the weakest schedules in the league this year, including two against Detroit, home games against Cincy and Seattle, and road games against Stl., Clev, and TB. Rodgers had a great year and should get better run support this year. The defense will also be much better after a couple years of good draft day selections. I have GB playing in the NFC title game and should get to 11 or 12 regular season wins.

Atlanta over 8.5 wins
They do have a much tougher schedule than last year. However, with two wins against Tampa (see below) and a split vs. Carolina and NO, all they need to do is go 5-5 against their non-divisional opponents to clear the hurdle. Ryan should be even better with Gonzalez at TE and another year under his belt.

Tampa Bay under 6.5 wins
This team could easily be worse than Detroit this year. They have no QB, a new head coach that is barely out of diapers, an offense that was built to run with a new offensive coordinator from the college ranks known for his passing prowess. The team will also be without their long-time defensive coordinator and the glue that kept them perennially amongst the leaders on defense - Monte Kiffin. This team is a mess. I'd be surprised if they got to 4 wins.

Houston over 8.5 wins
It seems like every year prognosticators want to jump on the Texans and claim that "this will be there breakout year". OK, this year it's my turn. I think they now have the experience, the youth, the horses, and most of all the schedule to make it happen. The other teams in their division seem to getting long in the tooth. Jacksonville should also take a big step backwards in another "rebuilding" year (see below). This is the year that Scab stays healthy and Houston gets to 10 wins.

Jacksonville under 8 wins
For those who couldn't wait for the day that Jax dumped Fred Taylor so that MJD would hoard all the carries. Mark my words, you will be sorry for that wish coming true. He will not be able to carry the full load over the course of a long season and will disappoint. Garrard is not the answer especially with no one to throw to. They have lived for far too long with defense and running. Other teams have these guys figured out. I see them with 5- 6 wins.

Jets under 7 wins
The Jets will be better on defense with Rex Ryan taking over. However, they will be much worse on offense. Mark Sanchez will not be able to lead an average team to 7 wins in a tough division with a tough schedule. Bonus: I love the UNDER total points in every game the Jets will play this year.  

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