NFL Underdog Pick for Week 5
October 8th 2009 - Special K            

Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Yes, the 49ers are 4-0 ATS this year and should have a 4-0 record SU.  Yes, Shaun Hill has never lost a game he has started at home, but all good things must come to an end. The 49ers welcomed in Michael Crabtree this week. I look at this signing as a major distraction to the team. Isn't it ironic though that Crabtree decided to reopen negotiations with the 49ers right when the New York Jets acquired Braylon Edwards from the Browns? It couldn't be more obvious that the Jets were talking to Crabtree's agent all along.

Anyways, I can already hear the questions that Singletary is going to have to answer in his post-game interview - "Was Crabtree a distraction to your team this week? Did he have an effect on the focus of your team against the Falcons?  When is Crabtree going to play and help this dismal offense?"

Your defense and special teams can only carry you so far in the NFL. They can't win every game for you. At some point in the season your 28th ranked offense is going to have to step it up and put up some points on the board. This is going to be the week that the 49ers offense will need to win the game and they won't. Meanwhile, the Falcons have a very balanced offense with several players that can make big plays. I look for Roddy White to make some big catches down field as the 49ers focus on Turner and Gonzalez.  Patrick Willis can only cover so much ground out there!

By the way, I couldn't agree more with general manager A.J. Smith saying that his team's play at times this year has been "soft" after last week's beating in Pittsburgh. I wish he had told us that before we picked the Chargers last week.

Take the Falcons to win the game straight up

And if you like trends in your favor: The Falcons are 7-1 ATS after a straight up loss.