NFL Underdog Pick for Week 7
October 22nd 2009 - Special K            

Atlanta Falcons (+4) at Dallas Cowboys

It is plain and simple. I am going to keep fading the Cowboys until they prove to me that they can beat a quality opponent. The Cowboys wins this year come against teams that are a combined (3-14).  The Falcons are a good team all the way from their front office to their Quarterback and leader Matt Ryan. Tom Dimitroff, the Falcons GM and former Patriots director of college scouting, is one of the main reasons for the Falcons success. He deserves a lot of credit for his draft picks and for bringing Tony Gonzalez over from the Chiefs.

This game is really going to come down to red zone execution. Look at what the Falcons did last week against the Bears offense in the red zone. The Bears were able to drive down the field but failed several times to convert and score points (a Forte fumble and Cutler interception). Hasn't red zone execution been the Achilles' heal of the Cowboys in the last few games?  The Cowboys had 9 trips to the red zone in the last three games and only came away with 2 touchdowns. Jason Witten (ONLY 1 TD this year) is going to have to be a major factor in the red zone for the Cowboys to have any chance of winning this weekend.

The Cowboys may squeak out a win in this game but it won't be more than a field goal.

Key Cowboys Injuries to watch for: Marion Barber (thumb) and DeMarcus Ware (foot)
Key Distraction: Patrick Crayton complaints about being benched (read more)

Take the Falcons and the points

And if you like trends in your favor: The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS against teams with a winning record