NFL Underdog Pick for Week 9
November 4th 2009 - Special K            

Miami Dolphins (+10.5) at New England Patriots

I'm sure the New England Patriots haven't forgotten the beating they took against the Dolphins last year in Foxboro when the Dolphins introduced the wildcat to the NFL. Patriot fans were left stunned as the Dolphins won easily 38-13. The Dolphins were a 12.5 point underdog in that game.

I expect the Dolphins and their wildcat offense will have a lot of success against the Patriots defense this time around as well. The Patriots are ranked in the middle of the pack when it comes to rushing defense.  Did you even know that Brandan McGowan leads the Patriots in tackles for their defense? I can see this game playing out a lot like the Colts game for Miami. The Dolphins dominated time of possession against the Colts and will need a solid rushing attack in this game to keep Brady and his big play offense on the sidelines. 

The Dolphins now have a new weapon with the emergence of Ted Ginn as a kick returner. Ginn exploded last week for two kickoff returns against the Jets.
As I see it, the Dolphins have big advantage over the Patriots in special teams and the kicking game. The Patriots have a punter that averages 39 yard per punt and have even brought in Mike Nugent for a workout.

The Dolphins are just too good of team to be underdogs by 10+ points in a rivalry game like this. I handicapped the spread to be closer to 5 points in this contest and see great value in the Dolphins.

Take the Dolphins and the points

And if you like trends in your favor: Patriots are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 10.5 or more