NFL Super Bowl Bargain Bet
February 6th 2010 - Old Man Winner             

New Orleans +5.5 vs. Indy

I've been poo-pooing "destiny" all year. But now its time to reverse direction like Reggie Bush being called back to the bedroom by Kim Kardasian. It's time for the "Who Dat" nation to rise up and take what the country wants them to have - a good break. One that is sorely needed.

Yes, it's time for the Saints to go marching in!

OK, on to the game breakdown:

Although I would never dis Peyton Manning, as he is the best of the best, and quickly approaching legend status, I just don't think that Drew Brees is far behind.

I think there are a few points that will determine the game - in no specific order:

1) Injuries - these are always important, but the fact that Freeney may not play or, at best, be extremely limited is HUGE! This truly is a game changer as he is the straw that stirs the drink for Indy's defense. It doesn't help that DB Jaurrad Powers is questionable with a foot injury either. The Saints look relatively healthy in comparison. Their was an uproar when the Colts sat out their key players headed into the playoffs, why hasn't anybody given them grief for not pulling Freeney when the game was already on ice?????

2) Turnovers - again, always hugely important. All week I've been hearing about how the offenses (more specifically the Colts) don't turn the ball over (absolutely amazing that Manning didn't have a fumble all year), yet I haven't heard anything about how the defenses force turnovers. Often times turnovers look to be a random occurrence, but over the course of a full season you can see how some defenses are trained to be ball hawks on every play. Yes, the Saints may have been 25th in the league in yardage gained against them, but they were #2 in takeaways. They smelled blood in the water with the Vikings last week and caused 5 turnovers. Greg Williams will find the Colts to attack.

3) Weather - Although cold and snow will obviously not come into play, as all astute followers know its the wind that affects the passing game more than any other single weather factor. I have watched multiple live shows from Miami this week and seen the wind whipping through stages with such power that the guys are living in fear of their toupees blowing away and the women have been on a steady diet of hairspray. It's been windy, and if it doesn't calm down this could help the team with the better running game - The Saints.

4) Special Teams - Watch out for Reggie Bush - he could be this years Devin Hester

5) Coaching - Yes, Peyton is a head coach on the field, but he only commandeers control of half of the team (less if you count special teams). Clearly Sean Payton is the better coach and with two weeks to prepare he should have some nice wrinkles.

Overall, I think the game sets up nicely for the Saints. I'm not sure they will win, but I do think they cover. Take the points before the spread drops too low.