NFL Bargain Bets for Week 1
September 9th 2010 - Old Man Winner             

Well, if you have been Jonesing as much as I have, the wait is almost over. Grab a cold one, get your jersey on, let the dog out, and kiss your wife (and don't get those mixed up), and secure the remote. It's gonna be a helluva ride ! ! ! And, if you have been humming the NFL theme music in your head for two weeks - this is the article for you (bodda bodda bum).

Last year in week 1 we picked on Tampa for starting Byron Leftwich and Dallas cruised to an easy cash. We almost had the same opportunity this year before he went down and the Steelers handed over the reins to Dennis Dixon. So we move on.

I find that the early part of the season is often the easiest time to pick winners. So much has happened in the offseason to change teams and there is no true recent game data (pre-season obviously doesn't count) for "the experts" to analyze. This means its a bit of a land grab, and I fully intend to get me some!

So what are we looking for in week 1? We are looking for the following: 1) good teams with minimal change, 2) teams with good discipline, 3) teams with a history of early season success. Teams that fit this bill are teams like Indy, Dallas, San Diego, New England, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco. We want teams where no major coaching changes or scheme changes have taken place during the offseason and no major personnel changes have taken place. We want the same guys playing in the same system as last year. Keep in mind that this may not make these teams playoff teams or Super Bowl Champs, but it will likely make them a great week 1 bet.

Now for their opponent - we're looking for just the opposite. We're looking for a team that is in high transition - new head coach and/or coordinators, a new scheme, a large amount of personnel turnover.

This year San Francisco -3 vs. Seattle is that matchup.

The Niners are in year two with the same head coach and coordinators, they have generally the same personnel with minimal, but very favorable upgrades at a few positions. They have a disciplined coached who will have his team ready for game 1. We've all heard the sound bites, "I want winners". Singletary believes in never stepping onto the field without a winning attitude. That is why they went undefeated in the pre-season. They were well prepared last year starting the season off with two wins and three of their first four without the talent they have this year. This is the first time that Alex Smith is the unquestioned starter, and the first time he didn't have to learn a new offense in the offseason. He has an improved line, and Michael Crabtree joins Gore and Vernon Davis as formidable weapons in a balanced offense. And their defense could easily move into elite territory this year.

On the other hand, the Seahawks are in major transition. Pete Carroll is taking another shot in the NFL. He is making enormous changes there - all of which may be good in the long run, but appears to almost assuredly put the team at a major disadvantage in the short term. They are changing just about everything - their organization philosophies, their schemes, their coaches, and their players. They have had an absolutely huge turnover in player personnel. As if all that is not enough, their #1 draft choice, LT Russell Okung, is hurt and may miss the game, they still don't know who is going to carry the ball, and they just released last year's #1 receiving target (Housh) and replaced him with a guy who defined the word "bust" up to this point (Mike Williams). Their defense has talent, but will likely not work well together early on and hard core discipline has never been at the top of Pete Carroll's list - see USC.

I think this is the most solid bet of the weekend. Don't be worried if Seattle plays SF tough in the first half. The Niners defense and run game will shine in the second half.

Take San Francisco, give the measly 3 points, and start your year off right!