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NFL Bargain Bets for Week 13
December 3rd 2010 - Old Man Winner             

Indy -5.5 vs. Dal

This one feels too easy. Let's take a look at some stats first:

- The Colts have lost two games in a row. Not counting last year's final two games where the starters sat, that hasn't happened since Oct. of 2008
- The last time the Colts lost three consecutive games was in Nov of 2002, over 8 years ago
- The Colts are 4-1 at home this year
- For the first time in many years, the Colts find themselves fighting for a playoff spot
Conclusion: The Colts will not lose three consecutive games this year, especially when they are playing at home and fighting to remain in the playoff race

- The Colts and the Cowboys gain more than 3 times as many passing yards as rushing yards per game
- The Colts are the #1 passing team in the NFL, The Cowboys are #5
- The Colts are #29 in rushing in the NFL, The Cowboys are #27
Conclusion: I'll take at wild stab at this, but I've got a hunch that both teams will focus on their passing attack in this game

- The Colts average giving up 204 yards passing to their opponents, The Cowboys average giving up 244 to their opponents
- The Colts have given up 13 passing touchdowns this year, The Cowboys have given up 23 passing touchdowns this year
- Peyton Manning has been sacked 13 times this year. Cowboys QB's have been sacked 19 times this year
Conclusion: The Colts will be more effective throwing the ball and scoring points


OK, so you're not a stat guy. How about this:
The Dallas offensive line is not very good. I can see Indy's DE's Freeney and Mathis eating these guys alive. I see Indy bringing pressure mainly with their front 4 and dropping 7 into coverage. Also, Barber is very likely out and Felix Jones is not very good at blitz pick-up when Indy decides to dial it up. With Kitna's immobility, I see Indy with 3 or 4 sacks and Kitna throwing a couple of picks. I am also guessing that he will hit on at least one or two big plays when protection does hold up.

Manning's line isn't the greatest, but he can do more with it. He will find the holes in the Dallas defense and the right matchups and crush the Dallas secondary. Uncharacteristically he has thrown for 3 and 4 interceptions in the last two weeks, respectively. He will want to remind everyone that those were flukes and that he does not turn the ball over as a regular course of action. I realize that the Colt receiving corp is completely banged up, but if there is a pony in the dung pile its that Peyton has been able to bond with every single player that is eligible to catch a pass on the entire Indy roster this year.

You may have bet on Indy last week, playing the "don't bet against Peyton losing two games in a row" strategy. None of our experts on our site did, but I can certainly understand it. If you did, its time to double down and get that money back this week (and hopefully more).

Take Indy and gladly give the measly 5.5 points.

Indy 38 Dal 23
 


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