NFL Best Bets for Week 17
December 30th 2011- Old Man Winner
NYJ +2.5 @ Mia, Sea +3 @ Ari, and NYG -3 vs. Dal
Here is what you are looking for in week #17, either 1) teams that have
something to play for vs. teams that have mentally packed it in, or 2) games
where everything or nothing is on the line for both teams. Try to avoid those
games where there is any question about which players on a playoff team may or
may not play.
With that in mind I like the Jets, the Seahawks, and the Giants
The Jets need to win to try and get into the playoffs. The Dolphins are out of
the playoff picture. Those facts, alone, are enough. However, there are a couple
of additional factors in the Jets favor. The two most important Dolphins players
have been ruled out for this game - LT Jake Long, the leader of the offensive
line, and Reggie Bush, their reborn rushing phenom. Without these two their
rushing game will be significantly diminished and they will need to revert to a
passing game that, albeit improved, is just average. This will play right into
the strength of the Jets defense. Although Brandon Marshal had a good game
playing on Revis island in their last meeting, I don't expect to see Revis lose
this battle again. The other holiday gift is that the Jets are getting 2.5 pts.
in this game. I would have expected them to be giving about that many.
I expect the Jets to try and get back to their running ways and take the ball
out of Sanchez hands a bit more in this one.
NYJ 20 Mia 13
Neither team has anything to play for when Seattle travels to Arizona - so
playoff motivation is a wash.
However, the Seahawks have Marshawn Lynch, and he is an absolute beast. He is
tearing it up no matter what team the Seahawks face. Even in last week's loss
against the 49's #1 rush defense, he ran for over 120 yards (the first 100+ yard
rusher in over 2 seasons against SF) and scored the first rushing TD against the
9ers this year. They have put up over 30 points in three of their last four
games. Their defense has also been very opportunitstic. The arrow for the
Seahawks is definitely pointing up.
I think Fitz will get his, but it won't enough.
Sea 24 Ari 16
In another game where the motivation is pure, the Giants will host the
Dallas Cowboys in a game that will determine the NFC East Champ and the team
that will make it into the playoffs.
In these games, I look at the game in many ways. One way is to compare key
positions and groups. Here is my breakdown:
Coaches: Advantage NYG
QB's: Advantage NYG (Romo's hand is still very swollen and should definitely
Offensive lines: Even
Defensive lines: Advantage NYG
Home Team: Advantage NYG
Anytime I can get 4 out of 5 of these, I'm confident in my pick.
I expect the Giants to get to Romo more than the Cowboys will get to Eli.
NYG 27 Dal 17