NFL Best Bets for Week 3
September 23rd 2011- Old Man Winner             

Wash +6.5 @ Dallas

Dallas is a physical mess and Washington is for real.

A good chunk of Dallas' starters are either out or dinged, including: Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Tony Romo, Felix Jones, Phil Costa (starting center), and Orlando Scandrick (CB) - none of whom practiced on Thursday. Besides those players, they also have others that practiced but are hurting, including both starting CB's, starting LG, and starting OLB. Dallas has played two very physical opponents: the Jets on opening week and the 49er's last week. Traveling to both coasts in back-to-back weeks has taken its toll and although they will finally play in their friendly confines, and have an extra day to recover (MNF), I just think they are too beat up to cover what is way too large of a spread.

Romo impressed many contrarians with his return to the game after fracturing his ribs and puncturing his lung. But, Romo's desire to play hurt, albeit heroic (which is where all the talk has been centered), does not give the Cowboys the best chance to win this week. Besides, one bad hit could risk a much longer layoff for him and put the team in serious jeopardy for a playoff run. They have one of the most solid back-ups in the game in Jon Kitna and should use him this week to give Romo at least one week to recover.

The Redskins, on the other hand, are healthy, have a year under their belts in the Shanahan system, have a new air of confidence that comes with a 2-0 record and have a track record of covering at Dallas (last time they didn't cover in Dallas was in 2006). The Redskins have a strong pass rush (4th in the NFL in sacks) and a young, quickly improving defense. They should be able to get past an injured line to an immobile QB who will be trying to find unfamiliar WR's. Washington has also been very good against the run - averaging a paltry 84 yrds/game.

On offense the 'skins have shown some nice balance averaging over 270 yds passing and over 120 yds rushing. Although Dallas leads the league in sacks, and will get to Grossman, the Redskins should be able to hit a couple of deep balls and attack the banged up corners. IF the experienced 'Good Rex' shows up, and limits his turnovers, expect the 'skins to cover easily and maybe even eek out a victory.

I see the defenses dominating this game.

Wash 20 Dal 19


Other games I like:

GB -3.5 @ Chicago - Stats can be misleading after only two weeks, and I think they are for this game. The Packers will not continue giving up 400 passing yards per game, but the Bears will continue to put their QB in jeopardy by not giving him ample protection in a scheme and with a QB that requires it. Pack covers easily. Look for Finley to have his break out game.


Det - 3.5 @ Min - Detroit will show that they are no longer a wannabe. They will stuff AP and collapse an overrated Min Oline. Detroit by 2 TD's.