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NFL Best Bets for Week 5
October 7th 2011- Old Man Winner
ROAD TRIP!
Every season there are weeks that a preponderance of the favorites win or
the underdogs or the home teams. This is the week of the road teams, and I like
these four the most.
KC + 2.5 @ Ind
KC is not as bad as they showed in their first three games, its just that
they ran into offensive juggernauts in the Bills, Lions, and Chargers. The first
true test was last week against a weaker opponent in the Vikings where they were
able to pass for almost 250 yards and run for over 100. Their defense has also
shown signs of life by playing a strong second half against SD and holding the
Vikings to 17 points. The Colts are averaging 16 pts/game and have not scored
more than 20. Frankly, Painter looked better than Collins has, but I just don't
see the Colts scoring enough points in this one to cover. I also like the UNDER
in this one.
Cin +2.5 @ Jax
This game sets up horribly for Jax. The only thing they have going for them
is that they are playing at home and that will not be enough. Jacksonville is
scoring an average of 9.8 pts/game against some very mediocre defenses - 9.8!
So, if they go off, what do they score - 14? 16? Please! The Bengals defense
looks good, especially against the run (the only thing thing the Jags can do)
and Andy Dalton is improving with every rep he gets. I see the Bengals winning
outright here. I also like the UNDER.
Oak + 6 @ Hou
Houston will look to focus on their run game. Andre Johnson is out, Arian
Foster is back at full strength, Oakland has shown a weakness against the rush,
and Houston torched this same Raider defense for 249 yards almost exactly a year
ago in Oakland. But, the Raiders front 7 is better than they have played thus
far this year and they are gearing up to stop the Texans run game. On the other
side of the ball, the Raiders lead the league in rushing and will look to impose
their will against a young, improving Texan defense. The Raider's Oline is much
better than last year and McFadden is running healthy. I see the Raiders winning
the battle on the ground and covering here if not winning outright. Like the
UNDER here also.
GB-6 @ Atl
The Packers offense is an unstoppable force and, unfortunately for the
Falcons, their defense is not an immovable object. The Packers are better than
they were last year and Atlanta is worse. This one should be a shootout as the
Packers secondary does bend, but their offense will just put up too big a number
for the Falcons to overcome. I like the OVER in this one as well. |
