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Don't Worry About the Spread, Just Pick the Winner
December 23rd 2011             

About this time every season, I like to take a look at a very interesting statistic. The statistic is - does a favorite cover the spread when they win the football game? After the first fifteen games of the 2011 NFL season, the favorite has covered the spread a remarkable 74% of the time, posting a 103-36-9 record when they have won the football game. If you are very confident that the favorite is going to win the game, then you have a 74% chance of covering the spread if the favorite team wins.

The Packers have been favored in all 15 of their games and have only failed to cover 4 times in their wins. Here are the week by week details of the analysis:
 
Week Record ATS Notes
1 7-3-1 3 home favorite winners failed to cover: NYJ, Jags, and SD
2 8-3-2 Back door cover by Car vs GB, Was & Den failed to cover
3 5-6 Miami, Minn, KC, Indy, Denver and Washington all covered
4 8-3 Teams covering were Carolina, Indy, and Seattle
5 6-1-1 Carolina played spoiler again covering against NO
6 8-2-1 Jags kept it close in Pittsburgh and Dallas covered at NE
7 5-1-1 Ponder spoiled a perfect week 7 vs GB
8 6-2 Ravens and Giants both won but did not cover
9 6-1 Cowboys were the only team to win and not cover
10 8-0 Perfect week
11 6-2-2 Cowboys and Packers both failed to cover as favorites
12 9-4 Bengals, Steelers, Cowboys, and Jets did not cover
13 7-2 Patriots and Packers failed to cover as a favorite
14 6-5 Broncos, Patriots, Lions, Ravens,and Steelers did not cover
15 8-1-1 Good week for the favorites - Cardinals spoiled perfection


 


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