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NFL Underdog Pick: Week 16
December 19th 2008
by Special K

Buffalo Bills (+7) at Denver Broncos   

Our hot winning streak continues for the underdog of the week. It has been four straight weeks of picking nothing but winners!  Let's see if we can make it five in a row this weekend.

If the San Chargers happen to knock off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers earlier in the day, then this game becomes huge.  The Broncos would need to win against the Bills to secure the AFC West divisional title and a playoff berth.  The Broncos definitely want to avoid a week 17 showdown in San Diego if at all possible. 

The biggest mismatch I see for this game is the Bills big offensive line against the Denver defense.  If the Bills can avoid the Broncos jumping out to a quick lead, then I could easily see this game being close and the Bills could even squeak out a win.  The Broncos come into this game with the leagues 27th ranked defense against the run and the Bills have been gaining more yards on the ground then in the air the last few weeks.  The Bills strategy should be to pound the ball with Lynch and keep Cutler on the sidelines.

I thought I would also point out a very favorable trend coming into this game.

  • Broncos are 0-5-1 ATS as a home favorite this year

Take the Bills and the points

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