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NFL Bargain Bets for Week 6
October 15th 2009 - Old Man Winner
New Orleans Saints (-3) vs New York Giants
Why does it make sense to choose this game as my favorite bet for the week? One
would think that it is tough when both teams are undefeated and playing well.
Why not just lay off this game?
The answer is simple. The best games to bet are always the ones where the teams
playing are the most predictable. Often those teams are usually the best or
worst teams in the league. And, its easier when the good play the good or the
bad play the bad so those large spreads don't enter into the mix.
In my not-so-humble opinion, a coach, or coordinator in this case, will have a
huge impact on this game. Greg Williams, the Defensive Coordinator of the Saints
will find an effective scheme to stop the Giants offense. Prior to his current
position he held the same post with the Washington Redskins and regularly was
able to find a way to slow down Eli and the Giants offense. He knows this team
well having played against the Giants twice a year for several years while with
the 'Skins. Also keep in mind that he's had an extra week to do it with the
Saints on a bye last week.
The Giants have yet to play a good team. Their combined record of all their
opponents this year is a meager 6-19. Brandon Jacobs has seemed to slow a step,
Plax is gone, and the entire team is very banged up. For the Saints, Brees has
his team believing. Incredibly, they are better running the ball than throwing -
amazing for a team that threw for over 5,000 yards last year and were very one
dimensional. And, as mentioned above, their defense is finally coming into their
own.
I believe the Saints are approaching this game the same way the Jets did a
couple of weeks ago against NE - as their mid-season Super Bowl.
I like the home team with a Def. Coord. that knows Eli, a superior QB, and an
emerging defense playing at home.
Other games I like: Car, Hou, Min, and Atl. I also like the Over in the Hou/Cin
game and the Under in the Buff/NYJ game.
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