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Pilfo's Parlay for Week 16
December 26th 2009 - Pilfo             

The Jags are coming off a game against Indy where their defense could not stop Indy, which is not a sin, and their offense just rolled over Indy. The Jags have a few extra days to rest and game-plan for the Pats and are highly motivated. The Pats defense is very suspect and the Jags should be able to get their ground game going. Garrard has improved to actually be a respectable q.b. this year.
The Pats are not the Pats of yesteryear but they still are a good team. Brady's injuries have been a factor in the Pats not being able to put opponents away and in this league if you can't put a team away you usually can't cover a spread over 7 points. Injuries in the Pat's defense will be the difference in this one.
Prediction: Jags 17-16.

The Texans and the Dolphins play for their playoff lives in this one where the loser goes home and the winner has a shot to go to the "tournament" as Parcells would say. With the Ravens playing at Pitt. and the Broncos playing at Philly, the logjam in the AFC playoff hunt could get even closer.
The Texans should be able to move the ball at will in the air against a Dolphin secondary that just keeps giving. (giving up yards that is) The Texans should be able to run the ball after establishing the pass in this one. Houston's defense while not sexy is a solid unit.
The Dolphins will try and establish the run game using both conventional formations and the wildcat formation but the Dolphins will have to score to keep up with the Texans offense. I don't think the Dolphins have the personnel to keep up. This match up favors Houston.
Prediction: Texans 41-31.

The Cardinals are not playing for too much here. Realistically the best they can do is get the number 3 seed for the playoffs now that they have clinched their division and that is a long shot. Fitz is hurting, Warner is still hurting so you actually have 2 ways to cover the spread in this game. The Cards could play well in the first half and then put in Leinart and company allowing the Rams to come in with a backdoor cover or the Rams can just play well as they have been lately and cover from the start. The Rams held a great Texan offense in check last week and even threatened to win the game. The Cardinals could barely beat an injured and depleted Lions team. I see these two teams going in opposite directions. Rams up and Cards down.
Prediction: Cards 24-17.

3 Team Parlay:  Texans +3 / Jaguars +7.5 / Rams +14

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