NFL Bargain Bets: Week 5
October 4th 2007
by Old Man Winner

SD +1 @ Denver

Call in the bomb squad! The Chargers look like they are about to explode. They're anger and frustration are palpable from miles away. When a 14-2 team, that has not lost any of its starters, begins the following season 1-3 and gives up a lead late in their previous game - WATCH OUT the following week! This is that week. At some point last year's Chargers team will show up, and I'm betting this is the week. There were glimpses of the old LT last week against a decent KC rushing defense.  He had 136 yards in the first half and then had only 6 carries in the second half. It was clearly some of the worst offensive play calling I have ever seen. After having to answer to that all week, I'm betting Norv won't let it happen again, especially against the second worst rushing defense in the league. Oh, and did I mention that Denver's stud RB and #1 receiver will be playing hurt, if at all? Getting even one point in this game is like someone begging you to take their money!


NYG -3 vs. NYJ

If these teams played on a neutral field which should be favored? Let me help you. It should be the team that is 2-2 against teams with a combined record of 12-3. It should not be the team that is 1-3 against teams with a combined record of 7-9. Well folks, that is exactly what we have here. These teams both play their home games on this field, so other than the crowd noise, they are on a neutral field. And, the two teams that beat the Giants are still undefeated. They are good teams. No, the Giants and Jets are teams headed in opposite directions. The Giants are finding their stride with two consecutive victories; this past week they absolutely manhandled the Eagles recording a dozen sacks. On the other hand, the Jets are struggling. Two weeks ago they almost blew a 4th quarter lead to the anemic Dolphins and then lost last week to the "one-dollar" Bills. I wouldn't be surprised if Pennington doesn't make it through this game. Gladly give the points.


Balt -3 @ SF

Home dogs cover roughly 60% of the time. When picking road favorites you must realize you are driving against the flow of traffic. You better be driving a Hummer! That said, this week the Ravens look like they're in a tank. Trent Dilfer couldn't make plays in his prime, now he's in his late 30's. Even before Alex Smith went down the 9'ers couldn't move the ball through the air (ranked last in the league), and struggled to run (ranked #20). They scored 3 points at home against Seattle last week. What makes anyone believe they will perform better against one of the best defenses in the NFL. It won't matter that Baltimore has its own issues scoring. Their defense should cover the spread in this game.