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NFL Bargain Bets: Week 7
October 18th 2007
by Old Man Winner
Comment on Bargain Picks KC +3 @ Oak
Are you a trend guy? Try these on for size: KC is 8-2 ATS (against the spread)
in their last 10 AFC West games, OAK is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on grass,
and the road team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. Or how about the simple fact
that Oakland has not beat KC since 2002 (the last 8 games). All trends point to
KC. Not a trend guy? How about like opponents: KC beat SD 30-16, while Oakland
was crushed by the Chargers last week 28-14. Yes, Oakland is definitely better
than they were last year, but not good enough to topple a solid KC squad that
should be able to run the ball consistently against a porous Oakland front 7. I
think the oddsmakers got their teams mixed up; the Chiefs should be the team
giving the points this week. The Chiefs should win this one outright.
Pitt -3.5 @ Den
No one seems to know what happens when an unstoppable force meets and immovable
object. But, I think I know what happens when an unstoppable force meets a very
pliable object. IT GETS RUN OVER ! Pittsburgh can't wait to bring its
league-leading running attack (alright it's second, but it would have been
league-leading if Adrian Peterson doesn't go off last week to move Minnesota
ahead) to Denver to face the worst run defense in the league. This is one of
those games that are all about how the teams' respective strengths and
weaknesses line up. In this one, Pittsburgh's strength is running the ball and
Denver's weakness is stopping the run. I just don't know how you overcome that.
I also look for Pittsburgh's TE, Heath Miller, to have a nice game. We all know
about the shut down Bronco's corners, but Miller should be able to find some
nice seams as the Denver LB's cheat up to stop the run. Also, home has not been
so sweet for Denver as they are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games. The
Steelers have reloaded on defense and the Bronco's are reeling after 3
consecutive losses. I expect Willie Parker to feel like he joined the Mile High
Club after this one.
Mia +16.5 vs. NE
Am I crazy? Maybe, but this Patriots "greatest team in history" talk has to end,
and this is just the sort of game to do it. The Patriots have been en fuego, and
the Dophins suck (even trading away one of their best players this week in Chris
Chambers), but 16.5 points to a home team in the NFL is an awful lot. I would
say this is a classic set-up game. One where the heavily favored team looks
ahead to a more important upcoming game (maybe the Nov. 4th game of the
undefeateds vs. Indy), but Belichick and Brady, don't look ahead. And, they do
want to set some records this year. So, why am I taking the Dophins? Simple
centrist mentality, all things tend toward the middle - NE can't continue to
beat the spread every week with it continuing to grow while Mia does the
opposite. I may be crazy, but I expect Miami to keep it close enough to cover.
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