NFL Bargain Bets: Week 8
October 26th 2007
by Old Man Winner
Comment on Bargain Picks
NYG -9.5 vs. Mia (in London)
Could two teams be on faster tracks going in the opposite direction? I don't
think so! The Giants are on a roll, having won their last five games by an
average of 13 points against much better teams than the beleaguered Dolphins.
The Fins, during that same stretch, have lost every game, by an average of 13
points, to mostly subpar teams (exception: NE). Miami has lost almost their
entire secondary due to injury (at some positions they are playing 3rd & 4th
stringers), not to mention that they will likely be without Zach Thomas,
arguably the heart and soul of their defense. On offense, they only have two
playmakers - Ronnie Brown and Chris Chambers. Oh, wait a minute, Brown went down
with a season-ending injury last week and Chambers was traded to SD. That only
leaves household names such as Jesse Chatman, Cleo Lemon and Derek Hagans -
exactly. Jason Taylor was quoted this week saying, "we can't win in this
country, maybe we can win in another". Uh . . . no! I'll be surprised if 20
points is enough in this one. Their only hope is that the Giants will not want
to completely embarrass them in front of a foreign audience for the greater sake
of the NFL.
Pitt -3.5 @ Cin
Who likes road favorites? I do in this one. When these teams meet the road team
has won the last 6 in a row and 8 of the last 9. Also, the favorite has covered
or pushed against the spread the last 9 in a row. But what I like most is that
Pittsburgh is coming off an embarassing defeat to Denver in front of a national
audience last Sunday night. They should have ran all over the Broncos, but chose
to come out passing. They've received heavy criticism all week because of it,
and I expect them to come out all fired up to prove they can run the ball at
will. They should easily be able to wear down a week Cincy front seven and
dominate time of possession. On the other side of the ball, don't expect Cincy's
Kenny Watson to put up another 100-yd. game against this Steeler defense. He'll
be lucky to get halfway there. I also like the fact that a week after their last
hiccup against Arizona they trounced Seattle 21-0. Go with the history and the
grit that is Pitt!
Wash +16.5 @ NE
Yes, NE has been playing out of their minds - statistically the best offensive
football in history, through the first seven weeks of the season. Therefore, it
is hard to throw some stats out there with any credibility. But, that has never
stopped me. How about this? What is the average rank of the passing defenses the
Pats have faced in those 7 games? How about 24th. That's the average. The best
passing defense they faced was last week's Mia team which is currently ranked
#14 and is in shambles (see above). The others rank as follows: Jets (26th),
Chargers (25th), Bills (31st), Bengals (28th), Browns (29th), and Dallas (15th).
This week they will finally meet a legit top 10 pass defense in the Redskins.
Joe Gibbs is also smart enough to know that, to stay close and take the crowd
out of the game, Washington will need to use their power run game to keep the
Pats offense off the field. I also expect the Skins to win the turnover battle.
Will they win the game? I highly doubt it, but they should cover.