Home Dog Weekend
September 29th 2007
by Special K

This is a very exciting week in the NFL as there are 9 games where the home team is getting points. I don't think this has ever happened in the history of the NFL.  In 2006, we had 2 weeks where 7 teams were home dogs. I've been asked several times by many of my friends to provide some analysis on home dogs. They fear the power of the home dog and rightfully so.  There is some sort of voodoo or black magic when favored teams play on the road.

In 2006, the home dogs won 46 out of 77 games! A winning percentage of 60%. The road favorites only had a winning record 2 out of the 17 weeks. The winning trend for home dogs has even continued into 2007 (7 for 11 or 64%). 

With 9 games this weekend, you can almost count on 5 or 6 of the home dogs winning with the spread.  I am betting against the trend this week in only taking only 2 home dogs. Why you ask? I don't buy any of it!
  
1. New England was a road favorite in 5 games last year and won 4.

2. Pick Detroit? I'm not on the Kitna band wagon yet. Besides what if he doesn't make it through the first quarter?

3. Read Bargain Bets for the Jets and Green Bay comments. I didn't write the article, but I totally agree with the comments.

4. Seattle is tired of hearing how they lost to the 49ers twice last year and can't play on grass, etc. Well, for one, the QB in the first game last year was Seneca Wallace and Alexander was just coming back from his injury.

5. History has shown that anything can happen in the Eagles/Giants game. However, McNabb was hot last week and the Giants used all their luck to pull out a win in Washington last week.    

Feel free to post your comments or arguments here.