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NFL Bargain Bets for Week 15
December 16th 2009 - Old Man Winner             

Alright team - we're on a roll now - three bargain bet winners in a row. I told you to treat yourself last week to an early Christmas present and I hope you listened. Here's another one that has a bow on it!

I love SF this week. There is no sound rationale for making them such a huge dog this week. This is a good football team that plays tough against superior opponents. They have inherited their head coach's attributes of grit, hard-work, and perseverance.

Let's break down how the 9'ers have faired in games where they were underdogs by 4 points or more:

Opponent Spread Score Result
Arizona + 5.5 W20-16 Cover
Green Bay + 6.5 L30-24 Cover
Minnesota + 7 L27-24 Cover (got Favre'd on last play of game)
Indianapolis +13 L18-14 Cover
Arizona +4 W24-9 Cover

Other than the Falcons game, their average margin of loss is only 4 points. They consistently seem to play to their level of competition, which I see them doing again this week. They rediscovered their run game on Monday night, along with a pass rush. After showing they can pass also, this team is starting to show signs of a top notch, balanced offensive team.

As for the Eagles, they are playing great offensive football recently - maybe too good. They have been able to get deep against their last few opponents. This is just too visible on tape not to game plan for it even against the extremely talented and lightning fast Eagle receivers. I think SF's pass rush and hard hitting safeties will disrupt the Eagle passing game and force some turnovers, which the 49ers should be able to capitalize on.

The odds makers are using the classic factors going against them to drive this spread up as high as it is; factors such as a short week (having played on Monday night), traveling across country, playing on the road, and playing a streaking playoff team.

These factors are normally valid, and pretty convincing, but I like Iron Mike's will to prevail in this one. Take the 49ers +8.5 points

Final Score: PHI 27 SF 24

Other games I love this week: NYG -3, Ind -3, Chi +10.5 and NE -7

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