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NFL Underdog Pick for Week 7
October 18th 2012 - Special K            

Baltimore Ravens (+6.5) at Houston Texans

Let me get this straight. You are going to give me one of best coached and disciplined teams who has beaten their opponent in six straight games, 6.5 points? You are kidding me, right? This point spread is a complete over-reaction to the Ravens losing Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb last week against Dallas. For the record, Dallas did cover and was our underdog pick/best bet/and part of Pilfo's winning 3 game parlay. Sure, Lewis and Webb are great players, but let's also not forget that the Texans have lost Brian Cushing, their top linebacker and Jonathan Joseph might sit this game out as well. So that kind of evens it out a bit.

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Maybe the point spread is inflated due to revenge factor the Texans have for losing in the postseason to the Ravens last year. We saw the media build up a 49ers team last week and they gave the Giants no shot of winning that game. I predict that the media will play up the Texans this week and the Ravens won't have a chance in this football game with Lewis and Webb out. If you want to look at a 10 year study on if the revenge factor really matters, you football geeks out there can read more here.

In the past, the defense of the Ravens has always bailed the Ravens and Joe Flacco out. Now that aging defense is getting gashed by the run and ranks 25th in total yards allowed. This week will be an incredible opportunity for Joe Flacco to take this team on his shoulders and provide the leadership that will be missing from a Ray Lewis. I believe Joe is up for this challenge and will deliver. C'mon say it with me, I believe in Joe.

This is one of my favorite underdog picks all year.

Take the Ravens and the points
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