NFL Best Bets for Week 2
September 14th 2013 - Old Man Winner
Dal +3 vs. KC
Well, we started the year off with a bang last week by taking a 7-point dog
(Tenn) and picking them to win straight up against the Steelers. Hope you were
able to join in the fun! But let's not rest on our laurels. Time to move on to a
new week.
Like many NFL pickers, every week I set my own lines. I do this to give myself a
little headstart on which games I like. I don't always necessarily go where
there is implied value because I may not like that side. However, when I set a
line giving three points and then discover that that team is actually getting
three points instead, I GET EXCITED! That is what I found in this game. I have
no idea why the oddsmakers love the Chiefs as much as they do this week. I get
it - they are at home, they won last week by the widest margin in the NFL last
week (albeit to the leagues worst team), they have a new head coach, a new QB,
blah, blah, blah.
But, sometimes, its just simpler than that. The Dallas Cowboys are a better team
than the Kansas City Chiefs, AND they are getting three points in this game.
Again, I recommend a straight up play - no reason to take the points. I like the
'Boys to win this game.
The Cowboys were extremely sloppy last week and still beat a good Giants team
(who I like as an upset special this week against Denver, but I digress). They
have a very good stable of pass catchers who are familiar with the scheme, the
QB, and the hot reads. Their running game showed signs of life and Murray
actually looks healthy and has a little giddyup in his first couple steps again.
Their defense looked like they were adjusting to their new scheme a bit, but
should be alright against a pretty parochial offense.
This year for the Chiefs on offense, I see the 2011 San Francisco 49ers. A good
running team, a high percentage passing team, but a team that will struggle
putting the ball in the end zone. I see their kicker having a nice year, like
Akers did for SF in '11. But, I still see a defense that has holes.
Dallas should score touchdowns, while KC puts up FG's.
Dallas 28 KC 23
|
|
|
