NFL Best Bets for Week 1
December 14th 2013 - Old Man Winner
GB +5.5 @ Sea
Week 1 is mostly about two things: possibilities and coaching.
What possibilities are there before the first game of a season? That's right -
endless possibilities! Every team is undefeated and every team has their highest
degree of motivation. No teams have established a dominance yet. That's why week
1 is usually ripe with upsets, or at a minimum underdogs covering the spread. In
week 1 we tend to focus on underdogs. Or, in the immortal words of David
Bennett, "We need more
dogs"
The second thing I like to look for in week 1 is coaches who typically prevail
given extra time to game plan. These are the superior coaches that, when given
unlimited time to prepare for a game, will most often prevail (think Bill
Belichick, or either of the Harbaugh boys). On the flip side, there are those
coaches that often are not at their best in single game preparation, or game
planning, but rather tend to succeed based on a yearlong systemic approach
(think Tom Coughlin).
What we're looking for then, in week 1, is an underdog with a coach that has a
good track record in week 1. Unfortunately, there are no games like this year
that pop out at us.
The closest we come is Mike McCarthy (5-3 in week 1 games) getting 5.5-6 points
on Thursday night in Seattle. If you follow the theory, as uncomfortable as it
is, you gotta take Green Bay and the points.
Other games I like:
MIN + 4.5 @ STL - Norv Turner will find a way to get AP the ball in space
and the Rams are still adjusting to the new old guy under center.
JAX + 10.5 @ Phi - just too many points for any team to overcome on
underdog week
TB-1 vs. Car - TB will be a much improved team and Carolina's best days
are in the rear view mirror
CHI -6.5 vs. Buff and Det -4.5 vs. NYG - starters for the Bills and
Giants looked absolutely putrid in the pre-season. Trestman quickly becoming one
of the best coaches in the league.
Enjoy this weekend and good luck to you on another fruitful NFL season.
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