NFL Best Bets for Week 9
November 1st 2014 - Old Man Winner
Den -3 @ NE
Schedule:
Denver has played more quality teams this year. The record of Broncos opponents this year is .545. Six of the seven teams they have played this year are currently sporting a winning record. The record of Patriots opponents this year is .407, one of the league's lowest.
Common Opponents:
These teams have played two common opponents. New England beat the Jets in Foxboro by 2 points. Denver beat them by 2 touchdowns on the road. The Broncos beat the Chiefs by 7 points in Denver, while the Patriots lost to this same Chief team 41-14.
Quality of PlayMakers:
Because it would take a huge tangent to try and compare the QB's - for the sake of argument, let's call that one even. If we also call the Tight End match a draw (Gronk vs. Thomas), then we're left with comparing DeMaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Wes Welker vs. Brandon LaFell, Julian Edelman, and Shane Vereen. I think we can safely call that one in favor of Denver. I also think we can favor Ronnie Hillman over Jonas Gray.
Weather:
One might think that weather may play into the hands of NE, but I beg to differ. Usually if its cold and rainy, teams tend to resort to their run game. If the game goes that way, I also like Denver's #1 defense against the run.
Previous Matchup:
In last year's game, in Denver in January of this year, Peyton passed for 400 yards in a 10 pt. victory for the Broncos.
I just don't see how this turns out any other way.
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