NFL Underdog Pick Week 12
November 21st
2014 - Special K  

Detroit Lions (+7) at New England Patriots

What are the types of teams that the New England Patriots have struggled against in the past few years? Teams that have a very strong, physical defensive front. This goes all the way back to when the Patriots lost their perfect season to the New York Giants. When you look at the games the Patriots lost this season, both the Dolphins and Chiefs defensive fronts presented problems for the Patriots offensive line. The Lions are a team that fits this mold.

The Lions defense doesn't wow you with creating a lot of turnovers or sacks. They are just #1 in points allowed. They stop the run (#1 in yards/attempt and total rushing yards allowed). Fantasy owners can expect to see much more of Vareen this week rather than Jonas Gray as Belichick won't waste his time trying to run the ball. The Lions defense ranks #1 in 3rd down efficiency. Also, the Lions defense ranks 5th in passing yards allowed. Suh and DeAndre Levy are having Pro Bowl seasons.

Just a few weeks ago the Patriots were only a 6 point favorite against the Bears at home. It is time to sell the Patriots high, because now I am getting a better team with an extra point. Simply put, 7 points is just too many points to be giving a team with this good of a defense.

I like the Lions to cover in this game.

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Take Lions and the Points
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