NFL Underdog Pick Week 12
November 21st 2014 - Special K
Detroit Lions (+7) at New England
Patriots
What are the types of teams that the New England Patriots have struggled against
in the past few years? Teams that have a very strong, physical defensive front.
This goes all the way back to when the Patriots lost their perfect season to the
New York Giants. When you look at the games the Patriots lost this season, both
the Dolphins and Chiefs defensive fronts presented problems for the Patriots
offensive line. The Lions are a team that fits this mold.
The Lions defense doesn't wow you with creating a lot of turnovers or sacks.
They are just #1 in points allowed. They stop the run (#1 in yards/attempt and
total rushing yards allowed). Fantasy owners can expect to see much more of
Vareen this week rather than Jonas Gray as Belichick won't waste his time trying
to run the ball. The Lions defense ranks #1 in 3rd down efficiency. Also, the
Lions defense ranks 5th in passing yards allowed. Suh and DeAndre Levy are
having Pro Bowl seasons.
Just a few weeks ago the Patriots were only a 6 point favorite against the Bears
at home. It is time to sell the Patriots high, because now I am getting a better
team with an extra point.
Simply put, 7 points is just too many points to be giving a team with this good
of a defense.
I like the Lions to cover in this game.
Take Lions and the Points
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