NFL Best Bets for Week 13
December 5th 2015 - Old Man Winner
Hou +3 @ Buff
I love getting it wrong so I can get it right!
Those who read this column regularly know that part of my weekly ritual starts
with me independently handicapping all the games. This always keeps me grounded
in the unbiased knowledge that i still know what I am doing while at the same
time giving me a headstart on where I believe there to be some value in the
lines.
I am usually within 1.2-1.5 pts off the Vegas spread on average per game, and
rarely identify the wrong team as a favorite. So, this week when I projected
Houston as a 3 point favorite only to find out that Vegas saw it exactly the
opposite, making the Bills as the 3 point favorite, this game jumped off the
page as having tremendous value.
Now, just because I was off on my projection of how Vegas would handicap the
game doesn't always lead to me taking action on this game. Sometimes it just
leads me to reassess the game and dig deeper into why the line was set the way
it was.
So . . . . after that deeper dive I still love the Texans in this one. They have
held three of their last four opponents to 6 points each. Did you hear me? SIX
points given up in a whole game three times in four weeks. Is four games a small
sample size? Yes. But, in the NFL, that is a quarter of the season and a
legitimate trend. They are relatively healthy and Buffalo hasn't shown much
offensively. The Bills have traveled a ridiculous amount this season, including
the last three games. And, even though they are home this week, I think all that
travel has taken a toll.
Take the better team AND the points.
Hou 20 Buff 10
|
|
|
