NFL Best Bets for Week 13
December 2nd 2016 - Old Man Winner
LA +13.5 at NE
Jared Goff vs. Tom Brady - no brainer, right? Not so fast. Obviously Brady
is a HOF QB and Goff is a rookie starting only his third NFL game, but the
number just strikes me as being way too high.
LA has been playing good defense all year long and has given up only 10 points
or less in 4 of their last 5 games. This is a legit defense and Brady is dealing
with a banged up offense. Most importantly Gronk is out and that changes the
offense. Without their two Tight End sets it is much easier to scheme for their
offense. Although most of their other pass catchers will play, they are almost
all dinged to some degree - Edelman, M. Bennet, and Hogan have all seen limited
practice reps this week as has Brady, although his absense is fairly normal. If
you watched their game last week it sure did not look like an in-sync offense
early on. It looked more like a rusty team that didn't have sufficient reps
during the practice week. I expect the same this week against a very good pass
rush which is usually the key to slowing down a Tom Brady offense (cite: two NYG
Super Bowls).
As you well know, Hoodie usually takes away the opponents best player and makes
teams beat them with what remains. Fortunately for the Rams they don't have a
best player, so nothing changes. I think the Rams only need to score about 10
points to cover this monster spread.
NE 20 LA 16
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