NFL Best Bets for Week 13
December 2nd 2016 - Old Man Winner

LA +13.5 at NE

Jared Goff vs. Tom Brady - no brainer, right? Not so fast. Obviously Brady is a HOF QB and Goff is a rookie starting only his third NFL game, but the number just strikes me as being way too high.

LA has been playing good defense all year long and has given up only 10 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. This is a legit defense and Brady is dealing with a banged up offense. Most importantly Gronk is out and that changes the offense. Without their two Tight End sets it is much easier to scheme for their offense. Although most of their other pass catchers will play, they are almost all dinged to some degree - Edelman, M. Bennet, and Hogan have all seen limited practice reps this week as has Brady, although his absense is fairly normal. If you watched their game last week it sure did not look like an in-sync offense early on. It looked more like a rusty team that didn't have sufficient reps during the practice week. I expect the same this week against a very good pass rush which is usually the key to slowing down a Tom Brady offense (cite: two NYG Super Bowls).

As you well know, Hoodie usually takes away the opponents best player and makes teams beat them with what remains. Fortunately for the Rams they don't have a best player, so nothing changes. I think the Rams only need to score about 10 points to cover this monster spread.

NE 20 LA 16

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