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NFL Underdog Pick Week 16
December 23rd 2016
- Special K            

Baltimore Ravens
(+5.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The NFL has given us a great gift this season, we get the Ravens vs Steelers on Christmas Day.
The is one of the most ferocious rivalries in football. For most purposes, this game will determine the AFC North champion. The Steelers win the division with a victory and a Ravens win gives them the head to head tiebreaker advantage.

To be honest, I was completely shocked by the point spread in this football game.
In 7 out of the last 8 games, Vegas has set the point spread in these matchups at 2 or 3 points.
The only exception was last year when Joe Flacco was out, so the Steelers ended up being a 10 point favorite. I had set my line as Steelers -3 this week so I will be taking advantage of getting additional points in this spot. I will be taking the Ravens.

I could sit here all day and analyze this football game. Jimmy Smith is out so AB and the Steelers have a huge advantage in the passing game. However, the Steelers will be down Green and Coates. Big Ben is a better QB at home, blah blah blah. At the end of the day, somehow this game will be determined by 3 points or less. 7 out of the last 11 games have been determined by 3 or less points so who am I to argue against that trend. I am putting great faith in the the data this week.

Take the Ravens and the points
 
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