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NFL Best Bets for Week 10
November 11th 2017 - Old Man Winner

Mia +9 at Car

Beep Beep Beep

Some times you drive forward into a bet, much like you would do if you were taking the Patriots this week. New England is rolling. They are coming off a bye (always a good thing with superior coaching) and Denver is reeling without a quality starting quarterback. This is my second favorite bet of the week.

And then there are games you back into - hence the beep beep beep. How can Carolina be favored by 9 points? I handicap games weekly. I handicap every game. So does Special K. We both had Carolina as a 4.5 pt favorite. It's rare that I'm more than a couple points off the Vegas line, its really rare that I'm off by a full 4.5 pts, and its really, really rare that both Special K and Old Man Winner are both off by 4.5 pts.

I just don't know what the oddsmakers see here. Yes, I agree that Carolina should be favored. They are the superior team with a quality defense. However, their offense has looked dismal this year. Cam does not look the same. His throwing motion looks off and his balls are floating (not in a jar, in the air). They recently lost their #1 receiver and they can't seem to run the ball against anyone.

I will stipulate that the Dolphins offense has struggled this year, scoring the fewest points in the league. However, in their last four games they have avg. 19 pts a game, which is what Carolina has averaged for the year.

Miami is used to the weather, has some guys who want to prove themselves running the ball after the departure of Ajayi, should have a full compliment at receiver, and should be able to pressure the Panthers. I expect the Dolphins to have at least one TD over 40 yards, maybe two and for Carolina to struggle offensively. I expect a super boring low-scoring game. That said, its never boring carrying money to the bank!


Car 19 Mia 17


 

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