NFL Best Bets for Week 12
November 25th 2017 - Old Man Winner

GB +14 @ Pit 

Do you smell that? This game smells like a classic upset just waiting to happen. One team is rolling and the other is realing. One team looks to have their conference wrapped up while the other doesn't seem like they have a chance to make the playoffs. That, my friends, is a game where you need to beware.

No one is giving the Packers a chance in this one as they travel to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers who appear to finally be clicking on both sides of the ball, especially since GB is rolling out their second string QB who by no means appears comfortable against NFL caliber defenses.

This one's not about the X's and O's, but rather a pattern with teams that is developed over the years. Of course the Steelers are a much better team on paper, but I just think 14 points is way too many in this one.

I think the Packers have a slim chance to make the playoffs, but they need to win now, and they know it. The Steelers on the other hand tend to regularly play down to the competition and will be looking ahead to 'tougher' games. I expect them to falter here, even if its just a little bit.

Keep in mind, when you are playing against a spread this big in the NFL, there are a tremendous number of things that provide the underdog an advantage - things such as turnovers, weather, lack of focus, poor officiating, and most importantly the classic of the team that is ahead just sitting on a lead to ensure a victory. Remember, its not like in college where margin of victory is critical and powerhouses play it to the end.

I don't know how GB does it, but have a hunch they hang in this one.

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Pit 24 GB 23

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