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NFL Best Bets for Week 6
October
12th 2012 - Old Man Winner

Dal +3.5 @ Bal

Sometimes you can just smell games - and this one smells like upset to me. What does upset smell like? Just ask the Cincinnati Reds fans - they should know.

Everyone will remember how awful the Cowboys were against the Bears on Monday night a couple of weeks ago. Everyone lumps the Ravens in with the Bears for always have a top notch defense. And, everyone will look at the records of these two teams and think that this one should be a no brainer.

Wrong, Wrong, Wrong!

Romo and the Cowboys have a couple of those clunkers a year and typically bounce back very quickly. They have had two weeks off to scheme and Jason Garrett will have them ready. They are pretty healthy and will play better away from the pressures that come with playing under Jerry's $1B big top circus.

The Bears may be who we thought they were, but the Ravens are not. Have you watched this defense lately? No one wants to dis RayRay, but stick a fork in him, he is done. I watched him over the course of their last three games and he can no longer stick with backs in coverage, nor can he get to the outside and make the plays he used to. He has become a liability. The Chiefs manhandled the Ravens last week, but turned the ball over to give that game away. Without Suggs, the pass rush has deteriorated and the secondary has been exposed. Ngata and Lewis are still great at plugging up the inside run, but Demarco Murray should be able to get outside on this defense.

Dallas needs to get back on track to keep pace in the division and Baltimore is sitting too fat with their record in the AFC North.

Dal 27 Bal 20



I also like these Over/Unders this week:

NYG/SF - OVER 44.5
The Giants are not the Bills and the Jets (SF last two opponents held to a total of 3 pts), they can score on anyone. Remember you can't spell elite with ELI. The 9ers have also learned how to put up points.

Min/Wash - UNDER 47.5
The Vikings will stop the run and will force Wash to pass. The Vikings rush will deliver sacks and turnovers. Minnesota will play conservatively and keep the score down.

Den/SD - UNDER 50
These two QB's make people think points, but neither has the weapons they traditionally have had. Look for the defenses to show the wrinkles and provide more big plays than the offenses.






 
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