NFL Best Bets for Week 6
October 12th 2012 - Old Man Winner
Dal +3.5 @ Bal
Sometimes you can just smell games - and this one smells like upset to me.
What does upset smell like? Just ask the Cincinnati Reds fans - they should
know.
Everyone will remember how awful the Cowboys were against the Bears on Monday
night a couple of weeks ago. Everyone lumps the Ravens in with the Bears for
always have a top notch defense. And, everyone will look at the records of these
two teams and think that this one should be a no brainer.
Wrong, Wrong, Wrong!
Romo and the Cowboys have a couple of those clunkers a year and typically bounce
back very quickly. They have had two weeks off to scheme and Jason Garrett will
have them ready. They are pretty healthy and will play better away from the
pressures that come with playing under Jerry's $1B big top circus.
The Bears may be who we thought they were, but the Ravens are not. Have you
watched this defense lately? No one wants to dis RayRay, but stick a fork in
him, he is done. I watched him over the course of their last three games and he
can no longer stick with backs in coverage, nor can he get to the outside and
make the plays he used to. He has become a liability. The Chiefs manhandled the
Ravens last week, but turned the ball over to give that game away. Without
Suggs, the pass rush has deteriorated and the secondary has been exposed. Ngata
and Lewis are still great at plugging up the inside run, but Demarco Murray
should be able to get outside on this defense.
Dallas needs to get back on track to keep pace in the division and Baltimore is
sitting too fat with their record in the AFC North.
Dal 27 Bal 20
I also like these Over/Unders this week:
NYG/SF - OVER 44.5
The Giants are not the Bills and the Jets (SF last two opponents held to a
total of 3 pts), they can score on anyone. Remember you can't spell elite with
ELI. The 9ers have also learned how to put up points.
Min/Wash - UNDER 47.5
The Vikings will stop the run and will force Wash to pass. The Vikings rush
will deliver sacks and turnovers. Minnesota will play conservatively and keep
the score down.
Den/SD - UNDER 50
These two QB's make people think points, but neither has the weapons they
traditionally have had. Look for the defenses to show the wrinkles and provide
more big plays than the offenses.
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