NFL Best Bets for Week 3
20th 2014 - Old Man Winner

Cin -6.5 vs. Ten

Turnover differential wins football games. Not very sexy, but true. You can talk all you want about yards or completion % or time of possession, but the number one determiner of winning football is turnover differential.

The Bengals are +4 thus far and have yet to turn the ball over in their first two games. And, as much as people liked the trendy, creative play calling of Jay Gruden last year, I'm happy with a much more conservative offense that focuses on rushing the ball, running a less risky passing scheme, and letting their defense focus on turning the ball over themselves.

As expected heading into the season, Hue Jackson has ramped up the run/pass percentage and is actually running the ball 35 times compared to only 30 pass plays. They like to get the ball into Giovanni Benard's hands as much as possible and then attack downfield to Green on play action.

This is smart coaching and I expect them to dominate a very pedestrian Tennessee offense and pull away in the second half.

Cin 31 Ten 17

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