NFL Best Bets for Week 13
December 1st 2018 - Old Man Winner

Ari +14 @ GB

It's hard to ever take a 2-9 team with confidence, especially when they are on the road against a Hall of Fame quarterback, right? Not really.

The week always starts with me setting my own spreads for each game. This gives me a head start on where the value may be from my perspective. This week something happened that I haven't seen in years. I was off by 8 points on this game. That never happens. When it does I have to remind myself how Vegas built all those beautiful casinos. They know how to set point spreads. However, I have been doing it for years as well, and my record in picking games has been able to clear the Vegas juice in all but a couple of seasons. So when I see a game like this, I usually make sure I'm not crazy with some additional research, then I usually go with my initial reaction.

Don't get me wrong. Arizona is not a good football team. The only team they have beaten this year is the lowly San Francisco 49'ers, twice. However, they have only lost by more than 10 points to four teams (Chiefs, Broncos, Rams, Chargers), all much better teams than the GB Packers.

I think there are two keys to covering this spread - the Green Bay offensive game plan and the weather.

The Packers passing game has just not been the same this year. Rodgers is still not as mobile as he has been in the past coming off his early season leg injury, the offensive line has taken a step back in protecting him, and receiving corps has been significantly depleted due to injuries. On the other hand, they seem to have found their future running back, with emerging star Aaron Jones, who they appear to trust with more of a workload every week. Arizona is much better against the pass than the run where they give up 144 yds/game. and 16 TDs this year (30th and 32nd, respectively). It's clear that the Pack will be running as their primary attack. This should slow the game and minimize the chance of a blowout.

The weather will also be a huge factor in this game. The forecast shows a serious weather front blowing through right at game time. Freezing rain and 20 mph winds should have both teams using the run game more often. This kind of weather also tends to favor the underdog teams as it leads to more turnovers which can somewhat randomize the game.

Hey, I don't love the Cardinals, but I do love the 14 points in a game like this.

GB 19 Ari 17

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