NFL Best Bets for Week 13|
December 1st 2018 - Old Man Winner
Ari +14 @ GB
It's hard to ever take a 2-9 team with confidence, especially when they are
on the road against a Hall of Fame quarterback, right? Not really.
The week always starts with me setting my own spreads for each game. This gives
me a head start on where the value may be from my perspective. This week
something happened that I haven't seen in years. I was off by 8 points on this
game. That never happens. When it does I have to remind myself how Vegas built
all those beautiful casinos. They know how to set point spreads. However, I have
been doing it for years as well, and my record in picking games has been able to
clear the Vegas juice in all but a couple of seasons. So when I see a game like
this, I usually make sure I'm not crazy with some additional research, then I
usually go with my initial reaction.
Don't get me wrong. Arizona is not a good football team. The only team they have
beaten this year is the lowly San Francisco 49'ers, twice. However, they have
only lost by more than 10 points to four teams (Chiefs, Broncos, Rams,
Chargers), all much better teams than the GB Packers.
I think there are two keys to covering this spread - the Green Bay offensive
game plan and the weather.
The Packers passing game has just not been the same this year. Rodgers is still
not as mobile as he has been in the past coming off his early season leg injury,
the offensive line has taken a step back in protecting him, and receiving corps
has been significantly depleted due to injuries. On the other hand, they seem to
have found their future running back, with emerging star Aaron Jones, who they
appear to trust with more of a workload every week. Arizona is much better
against the pass than the run where they give up 144 yds/game. and 16 TDs this
year (30th and 32nd, respectively). It's clear that the Pack will be running as
their primary attack. This should slow the game and minimize the chance of a
The weather will also be a huge factor in this game. The forecast shows a
serious weather front blowing through right at game time. Freezing rain and 20
mph winds should have both teams using the run game more often. This kind of
weather also tends to favor the underdog teams as it leads to more turnovers
which can somewhat randomize the game.
Hey, I don't love the Cardinals, but I do love the 14 points in a game like
GB 19 Ari 17